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Power equation in Nigerian politics and the dynamics of Akume’s 2031 remark

By Stephanie Shaakaa

Senator George Akume’s recent comments that the North should wait until 2031 for power to return to the zone sparked heated debates, not because it was new or surprising, but because it laid bare the uneasy truths of Nigerian politics. This was not just a statement, it was a mirroring of a system built on tenuous agreements, where the so-called gentleman’s rule of rotational power often teeters on the edge of breaking.

Power rotation in Nigeria has always been more of a necessity than an ideal. It is the duct tape holding together a deeply divided house. When Obasanjo was handed the reins in 1999, it was not just a vote for leadership but a symbolic gesture to calm the Yoruba after the annulment of the June 12 presidential election, widely believed to have been won by Bashorun MKO Abiola. The same logic ushered in Buhari to power after Jonathan a northern turn, plain and simple.

So, when Akume told the North to “wait,” he was not inventing the wheel. He was simply reiterating a system the North itself has championed in the past. But here is the kicker: nobody likes waiting. In politics, waiting means watching someone else eat while your bowl remains empty. It is not just about power; it is about access to resources, appointments, and the invisible levers that make Nigeria’s federal system tick.

But the political game has changed. Akume’s remarks presuppose that power rotation remains a guiding force. The reality? Nigeria’s politics now thrives on unpredictability and control, not just at the ballot box but in the courts and within institutions like the Incependent National Electoral Commission, INEC. We’ve seen elections where winners are decided long before the first vote is cast. In a system where state elections often result in one party taking all the council seats, who really believes in the sanctity of the vote?

This is why the speculation surrounding Goodluck Jonathan’s possible return to take a dive at the number seat is so potent. His potential return is not just a wildcard; it is a bombshell. Jonathan’s entry could disrupt Tinubu’s carefully crafted plans, particularly if he garners support from disgruntled factions in the North and South. It would force a recalibration of the unwritten rule of rotation and throw the 2027 race wide open.

Akume’s words, blunt as they were, point to a broader truth: power rotation, as much as it seeks to placate, often ignores the fundamental issues at play. It’s a Band-Aid over a festering wound, prioritizing regional equity over competence. This is not to say it lacks merit. In a country as diverse as Nigeria, some semblance of balance is necessary to prevent alienation. But the system has perpetuated mediocrity, creating a revolving door of leadership that struggles to address Nigeria’s deeper problems.

The North’s reaction to Akume’s statement is understandable. Nobody enjoys being told to sit back and wait, especially in a country where power means survival. But Akume, for all his brazenness, was simply protecting his political bowl and spoon. He knows the stakes. In a game where today’s ally is tomorrow’s rival, securing the presidency for the South until 2031 isn’t just strategy: Is survival.

Still, Nigerian politics is a game of surprises. Just when you think the lion will devour the gazelle, the tables turn. Akume’s call for patience assumes that the political landscape will remain static. History tells us otherwise. Alliances shift, power blocs crumble, and sometimes, the most unlikely candidates emerge victorious.

The real question is not whether the North will wait until 2031 but whether Nigeria’s political elite can navigate the complexities of a system increasingly built on unpredictability. Akume’s statement is bold, yes, but it wasn’t definitive. In a country where power is often won not by the ballot but by the court, the rules of engagement are constantly rewritten.

For now, the North may bid its time, grumbling but acquiescing. Or it might rise to challenge the status quo, reshaping the narrative and forcing a reevaluation of the rotation system. Either way, Akume’s comment has reminded us of one thing in Nigerian politics, nothing is ever set in stone. It’s a dance of power, ambition, and strategy one where even the most carefully laid plans can unravel in an instant.

The gazelle might yet outwit the lion.

Stephanie Shaakaa lectures at University of Agriculture Makurdi.

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