By Tim Nyor
In 2023, Alia secured 473,933 votes, representing 62.61% of the total votes cast, defeating the PDP’s Titus Uba, who garnered 223,913 votes (29.58%). His victory was broad-based: Zone A – 171,153 votes (65.79%), Zone B – 207,953 votes (66.13%) and Zone C – 94,827 votes (52.02%)
However, elections are not fought on historical statistics alone. Political memory in Benue is notoriously short, while grievances are often long-lasting. The alignments, personalities, sentiments and the general political atmospherics that shaped 2023 have evolved considerably, creating an entirely different electoral environment going into 2027.
ZONE A:
Strengths
Zone A remains Alia’s ancestral and emotional political base. The Jechira axis continues to be his strongest fortress. Voters in this bloc can point to visible dividends of government, including numerous strategic appointments, infrastructural interventions and the siting of the new university. His ancestral connection further strengthens his emotional appeal.
The Sankera axis also remains relatively favourable owing to the enduring influence of former Governor Gabriel Suswam and the ability of key political actors such as Solomon Wombo, Ashaver, etc to mobilise support structures. Despite existing tensions, Alia still possesses a workable foundation upon which to build.
Weaknesses
The greatest vulnerability in Zone A lies within the Kwande bloc.
The emergence of Micheal Aondoakaa SAN as the PDP gubernatorial candidate dramatically alters the political equation. Defeating him in Ushongo would be near impossible, neutralising his influence across the broader Kwande bloc may prove even more challenging.
Compounding this challenge is the simultaneous emergence of Thomas Unongo as PDP senatorial candidate and Bob Tyough as ADC senatorial candidate. The concentration of these high-profile contenders from the same geopolitical corridor creates a powerful localised momentum that could significantly erode APC support.
Equally damaging is the growing perception that Kwande has been excluded from the benefits ofy government. The removal of the former SSG and subsequent public controversies surrounding him have deepened feelings of resentment in parts of the bloc.
In Konshisha, the governor faces another complication. Influential figures such as Hon. Herman Hembe and Matthias Byuan are likely to command substantial local support, creating multiple centres of political attraction capable of fragmenting votes that would otherwise accrue to the governor.
Opportunities
Alia still possesses enough time to recalibrate. Targeted political reconciliation, strategic appointments, infrastructure projects and renewed engagement with community leaders could substantially reduce hostility within Kwande. Similarly, active outreach to previously estranged political stakeholders in Vandeikya, including respected figures such as Hon Terkaa Ucha and many others, could mitigate the impact of emerging opposition formations.
Threats
The emergence of Prof Terhemba Shija as NDC gubernatorial candidate presents perhaps the most underestimated threat within Jechira.
Unlike conventional opposition candidates, Shija possesses intellectual credibility, grassroots appeal and a network of influential Vandeikya stakeholders. His candidacy introduces uncertainty into what would otherwise have been Alia’s safest territory.
The cumulative effect of Aondoakaa, Unongo, Bob Tyough, Hembe, Byuan and Shija means that Zone A can no longer be considered a guaranteed APC stronghold.
ZONE B.
Strengths
Zone B remains the governor’s strongest electoral territory statistically. In 2023, Alia secured some of his most impressive performances here, winning approximately 73.38% in the Gboko/Tarka axis and roughly 75% in Buruku. The zone remains home to significant segments of the APC establishment and still contains substantial goodwill toward the governor. The fragmentation of opposition forces across multiple parties may also work in Alia’s favour.
Weaknesses
The governor’s political difficulties in Zone B stem less from opposition strength and more from self-inflicted wounds. There is growing dissatisfaction across Jemgbagh arising from several developments: The prolonged political conflict involving Senator George Akume; the removal of Rt. Hon. Aondona Dajoh as Speaker; Tensions involving the Ter Gboko; Perceived underperformance of government appointees from the area; A widespread feeling that the zone has not received commensurate attention. Collectively, these issues have created pockets of resentment in what should ordinarily be fertile political territory.
Opportunities
Unlike some grievances that become irreparable, many of the concerns in Zone B remain manageable.
Political reconciliation remains possible. Repairing relationships with traditional institutions, restoring confidence among influential stakeholders and ensuring that government appointees deliver tangible benefits could significantly improve the governor’s standing. The advantage of incumbency gives him resources and visibility that no challenger currently enjoys.
Threats
The emergence of Mrs Ortom as the PDP Senatorial candidate is a challenge that cannot be ignored. Eunice enjoys vast goodwill across Zone B and wields tremendous influence across Jemgbagh and MINDA axis.
Achado, Dickson Tarkighir now Emmanuel Jime are formidable opposition figures within the zone.
The emergence of Barrister Hon, SAN, introduces a new variable.
Although it remains uncertain how much electoral weight he can independently command, his candidacy could attract protest votes from dissatisfied elites and grassroots voters alike.
More importantly, history suggests that Tiv voters rarely grant governors automatic re-election on the basis of performance alone. Benue’s political culture is characterised by periodic elite realignments and anti-incumbency sentiments. Consequently, Zone B cannot be taken for granted despite its impressive 2023 numbers.
ZONE C
Strengths
Zone C remains strategically important because Alia still won the district in 2023, albeit narrowly compared to Zones A and B. The deputy governor, Sam Ode, provides an institutional foothold for the administration within the district. The APC retains existing structures that can still be activated if properly managed.
Weaknesses
Zone C currently represents the governor’s most vulnerable electoral frontier.
Across Idoma and Igede communities, there is a growing perception of exclusion, neglect and marginalisation.
Whether fully justified or not, political perception often becomes electoral reality.
Many stakeholders increasingly believe the zone has not received adequate attention in appointments, projects and strategic decision-making. This sentiment has fuelled widespread disaffection.
Compounding the problem is the perception that the deputy governor lacks the political resources and influence necessary to effectively counter the growing opposition coalition.
Opportunities
The governor still possesses an opportunity to fundamentally reset relations with Zone C.
A deliberate strategy of inclusion, appointments, infrastructure development and sustained engagement with traditional, political and youth leaders could slow the erosion of support.
Zone C’s politics remain highly relationship-driven, making political reconciliation both possible and potentially rewarding.
Threats
No zone presents a more intimidating array of opposition figures. The most significant factor is the emergence of former Senate President David Mark as a leading figure within the ADC structure. Mark is not merely a politician and former Senate president, he was is an institution whose influence spans decades.
Additionally, Prince Onu of Labour Party enters the Senatorial race with grassroots credentials and extensive local networks. David Olofu enjoys substantial popularity and is reportedly supported by influential political figures including Sir John Ngbede , Chris Abah (Mad Lion), Adakole Elijah amongst others.
Senator Abba Moro remains a formidable PDP force with deep-rooted structures.
The convergence of these actors creates perhaps the most sophisticated opposition ecosystem confronting the governor anywhere in the state.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT
Governor Alia’s greatest advantage remains incumbency. His greatest challenge is not opposition parties but accumulated grievances. In 2023, he benefited from a near-universal coalition of anger against the outgoing administration. In 2027, he will face a coalition of expectations, disappointments and competing ambitions.
Zone A is becoming increasingly competitive.
Zone B remains favourable but requires urgent political repairs.
Zone C has emerged as the governor’s principal battleground and potentially his most difficult electoral theatre.
At present, Alia remains competitive and retains a viable but shaky path to re-election. However, unlike 2023, victory can no longer be assumed. The election is gradually shifting from a referendum on the previous administration to a referendum on his own stewardship, political management and capacity to maintain the broad coalition that brought him to power.
The central question heading into 2027 is therefore not whether Governor Alia can still win Benue, but whether he can successfully rebuild enough bridges across the three senatorial zones before the electorate is called upon to make its judgement.
Tim Nyor, a former Publicity Secretary of the Peoples Democratic Party in Benue state writes from Abuja