By Terkula Igidi

As the official date for campaigns for governorship election across the country kick starts the electioneering season on Wednesday, September 2026, the plethora of candidates and the sheer weight of their individual political clout will sure make the jostling to occupy the seat of governor in the agrarian state of Benue quite theatrical and intriguing.

The 2027 governorship poll is scheduled to hold on February 6, and is shaping up as a six-way contest. However, the electoral calculations are not as straightforward as it seems due to the mercurial political ecosystem of the state at the moment.

The candidates are Rev Fr Hyacinth Alia of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Chief Michael Aondoakaa of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), Prof.Terhemba Shija of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Prof. Sebastine Hon of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Hon. Herman Hembe of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Mathias Byuan of the Labour Party (LP).

Governor Hyacinth Alia (APC): Incumbency Places Him Ahead of the Pack

The incumbent governor, Rev Fr Hyacinth Alia, appears to be a clear favorite to win the 2027 race but political analysts are predicting that his greatest strength going into the contest could yet be his Achilles heels.

Strength

Alia enters the contest to renew his tenure with the biggest advantage available to any candidate—incumbency. He controls the machinery of the state government and boasts of a large financial war chest and has access to the APC’s organisational structure at the national level.

His administration can also campaign on infrastructure, regular payment of salaries and pensions, building and revival of industries and development projects. His supporters have particularly highlighted projects in Benue South, where APC says more than N100 billion has been spent on infrastructure and others.

The reverend gentleman enjoys zealous support from the youth population and adherents of the Catholic and protestant denominations, which he will be counting upon to secure a second tenure.

Alia also has the advantage of being politically aligned with the President Bola Tinubu APC administration. His reported meeting with the president and his promise that Benue would deliver more votes to him in 2027 might win him support from above and create a bandwagon effect on the outcome of the polls since the presidential election is preceding that of the governorship.

Weaknesses

Alia’s greatest weakness may actually be the APC itself and his combative, garrison-styled politicking.

For much of the current political cycle, the party has been divided by internal disagreements and competition for party structures, thus creating a fractious atmosphere in the ruling party and a schism between the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) Sen George Akume‘s loyalists now recognized in local parlance as “Stakeholders,” and the Alia supporters who are referred to as the “Masses.”

Though reconciliation efforts have produced an uneasy calm between the godfather, Akume’s loyalists and the fanatical supporters of the godson, Alia, tensions still simmer beneath the veneer of the white-washed party unity forged for the sole purpose of delivering the Benue votes to the number one man at the helms, President Tinubu .

That matters because a divided ruling party can lose votes even when its candidate remains personally popular.

There is also the broader issue of performance versus expectation. An incumbent cannot campaign only on promises; voters can ask what changed between 2023 and 2027. Some of the delayed infrastructural projects like the dualization of the Wurukum-Airforce Base-Federal Housing Estate along Gboko road and the Ihugh-Anhyula road which is yet to witness appreciable progress even when it was one of the first projects embarked upon by the Alia administration will be the ones raising questions in the minds of many citizens

And insecurity remains politically sensitive. Alia has insisted there are improvements, but persistent insecurity means the opposition can argue that the administration fundamental problems.

 

Michael Aondoakaa (PDP):Gov. Alia’s Strongest Challenger

Chief Michael Aondoakaa, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) and a former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation, presents, perhaps the most formidable opposition challenge to the incumbent governor. His party may be in disarray at the national but it is still strong in Benue. It is being backed and nurtured by the political maverick, Chief Samuel Ortom, the erstwhile governor of the state, and can still boast of extensive grassroots network.

Strengths

Chief Aondoakaa possesses considerable political experience, elite networks and national connections as a former minister, a prominent legal luminary and a successful businessman. Therefore, with Ortom pulling his weight behind Aondoakaa and he, in turn, leveraging his social and political capital, he might go toe to toe and neck to neck with the incumbent Alia in the 2027 race.

His biggest potential asset, therefore, is a strong party base combined with elite political experience, which seems to be attracting the sympathy of the “Stakeholders.”

Besides, his campaign consultations so far have seen him focus on wooing Zone C—the Idoma and Igede speaking geopolitical space—where Alia is accused of negligence and marginalization. His consanguinity with the Idoma people through marriage presents a scenario where if he wins, an Idoma lady could become the Firstlady. This could be enticing enough to attract massive support for him from a region considered to be a swing zone.

He will also be relying on the goodwill of Senator Abba Moro, the only PDP senator in Benue state in the current dispensation, who is also a former minister and is regarded as a political colossus in the zone.

Weaknesses

The PDP flagbearer’s problem is that he is challenging an incumbent who retains the goodwill of the rural populace.

Chief Aondoakaa must also disabuse the minds of voters of the perception that he represents the traditional political establishment. In an election in which voters may demand a generational or developmental alternative, that could become a liability.

More importantly, the opposition field is fragmented. Aondoakaa cannot assume that anti-Alia voters will automatically vote PDP.

There is another intriguing dimension, Aondoakaa and the other leading candidates have histories within the APC political ecosystem. The 2023 APC primary results show that Aondoakaa, Shija, Hembe and Byuan were all previously involved in that contest.

That means the race is partly a struggle within the old APC political family, not simply APC versus PDP.

Also, with Chief Samuel Ortom on Aondoakaa’s campaign train, many voters may be put off because he was and is still being vilified for owing salaries and pensions of workers and retirees during his two terms as governor.

Prof. Terhemba Shija (NDC): Potentially Influential Third-force Candidate

Professor Terhemba Shija is potentially the most interesting intellectual/technocratic alternative in the race.

The NDC formally unveiled him as its governorship candidate in August 2026.

Strengths

Prof. Shija’s strongest asset is his political history combined with an academic profile.

He has previously contested for governor and has experience within Benue’s political establishment. He can therefore present himself as neither a political novice nor a conventional career politician.

His current messaging is also potentially powerful: agriculture, economic transformation and reducing poverty. His recent argument that Benue is too agriculturally endowed to remain poor speaks directly to the state’s fundamental economic advancement trajectory.

Benue is the “Food Basket of the Nation”, so an agriculture-led development campaign could resonate strongly if translated into practical proposals on farm-to-market roads, storage, irrigation, agricultural finance and agro-processing.

Weaknesses

The biggest problem is party structure.

NDC does not possess the historical organisational strength of APC or PDP in Benue. Shija, therefore, has to build a statewide political apparatus almost from scratch.

He also faces the classic third-party problem: voters may like a candidate but fear that voting for him could be “wasted” if they believe only APC or PDP can win.

In addition, he lacks the financial muscle to wrestle with the duo of Alia and Aondoakaa.

Prof Sebastine Hon (SDP): A Credible Alternative Swimming Against The Tides of Zoning

Professor Sebastine Hon’s candidacy represents another potentially significant challenge but he seems to be swimming against the political tides of zoning. In Benue politics, zoning appears to be sacred.

Strengths

Prof. Hon brings legal stature, intellectual credibility and political independence. He is a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) and has been campaigning around governance, justice, security and economic transformation. His appeal could therefore extend beyond conventional party structures.

The SDP also offers him an ideological advantage. He can position himself as an alternative to the two dominant parties.

Weaknesses

Again, the problem is statewide structures.

A governorship election in Benue requires a formidable polling-unit structure, ward coordinators, local-government mobilisation and election-day logistics. Personal reputation alone is insufficient.

Hon must also answer the question: where will his votes come from?

If his support comes predominantly from the same urban, educated and professional voters targeted by several other opposition candidates, he risks dividing the anti-APC vote without obtaining enough geographical concentration to win even in his zone B stronghold.

 

Herman Hembe (ADC): A Consumate Legislator in The Race

Hon Hermaan Hembe is arguably the candidate with the most interesting electoral trajectory.

He is not a newcomer. He has substantial legislative experience and contested the 2023 governorship under LP. Having emerged as ADC’s 2027 governorship candidate, he has the potential to cause an upset in the governorship contest especially if his party’s presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, wins the poll.

Strengths

Hoon. Hembe has something many minor-party candidates lack: a demonstrated personal vote. His strongest base is in the Jechira axis, particularly Vandeikya/Konshisha. His legislative experience also gives him name recognition.

His latest political strategy is particularly interesting. He has promised to serve only one term and hand over power to Benue South in 2031. This is a clever response to the state’s long-running zoning debate.

If Hon. Hembe can convince Zone C voters that he is offering a credible four-year bridge to southern governorship, he could potentially build an unusual Zone A and Zone C coalition.

Weaknesses

His 2023 result also exposes the problem: he won only 5.53 per cent statewide.

He must therefore transform a strong local base into a genuinely statewide movement.

ADC’s national strength and local structures are also still much weaker than APC or PDP.

He does not have the political establishment or elite backing which is crucial for statewide mobilization.

Hon. Mathias Byuan (LP): Treading a Difficult Path

Hon Mathias Byuan’s candidacy is perhaps the most difficult to analyze. He emerged as Labour’s candidate and as it appears, the only political capital he could cash out from is the residual goodwill from the Peter Obi phenomenon of 2023 which his party still retains.

Strengths

Byuan has deep pockets and is renowned for his generosity, and since money politics are the norm in the electioneering process in Benue in particular, and Nigeria at large, he stands a chance to garner some votes, especially in Zone A.

In the 2023 APC primaries that produced the incumbent as candidate, Byuan came second—that gives him familiarity with the ruling party political network.

Weaknesses

Having defected from the APC to pick up the LP’s ticket, Byuan is politically estranged from his godfather, Akume who is the political juggernaut of Benue, and who is fabled to have installed three successive governors after his tenure.

The bigger question is whether Labour can retain the enormous enthusiasm it enjoyed during the 2023 presidential election at the governorship level.

Analysts give verdict

Political observers forecast a too close to call contest in the Benue governorship race of 2027. Their permutations take in to account the political milieu of the candidates and the conduct of the general polls whether it will be credible, free and fair; or it will be conducted in the spirit of President Tinubu’s infamous comments: “All is fair in politics.”

According to Ben Ukeji, a renowned political affairs commentator, it is a straightforward race between Alia and Aondoakaa. He foresees Aondokaaa displacing Alia from the government house come May 29, 2027.

He maintains that if APC remains united in the state, Alia’s easiest route to victory will emerge. But if the governor continues with his disdainful attitude toward his alienated godfather, Akume, he will hand Aondoakaa victory in the poll on a platter of gold.

“If the APC internal crisis is genuinely resolved, Alia retains his 2023 support base; all candidates for National Assembly positions will mobilise votes for him from their constituencies, and when he improves his Zone C performance and prevents opposition parties from consolidating, he will win. But if he fails to reconcile earnestly with his benefactor Akume, Aondokaa wins,” he said.

He said Aondoakaa holds the ace in Zone C and his campaign messaging on insecurity confers obvious advantage on him, especially in crises prone areas of the state.

He gives Aondoaka clear victory in Kwande, Ushongo, Gboko, Tarka, Buruku, Guma, Gwer East, Gwer West and seven out of the nine local governments in the Zone C battleground; while Alia, the incumbent, will record victory in Makurdi, Vandeikya, Katsina-Ala, Logo, parts of Ukum and two local governments in Zone C.

Ukeji predicts Byuan will perform well in the poll and may come behind Alia or Aondoakaa; while dismissing the chances of Shija, Hon and Hembe garnering enough votes to win.

For Daniel Shwa, Hembe may well be the dark horse in the contest and has the capacity to cause an upset in the poll.

He said Hembe will leverage Atiku Abubakar, ADC presidential candidate’s influence to cruise to victory, insisting that money politics will determine who carries the day.

He also said Hembe is favorite to win Zone C because of his one term promise and rotation of the seat to the zone.

Shwa, however, dismisses the chances of Aondoakaa, claiming the PDP is a spent force in the state, while saying Shija is credible but lacks the financial war chest to prosecute his campaigns.

For Hon and Byuan , he said they are jokers, who stand no chance in the race. He further expatiated that if Hon had the backing of Akume and the political establishment, and wasn’t from zone B, he would have been the candidate to beat.